【美国网友】中国非常非常非常大！

Larry Summers and Lant Pritchett have writtena paper predicting a Chinese growth slowdown. In 2013, Barry Eichengreen,Donghyun Park, and Kwanho Shin wrote a paper with much the same message,which accurately predicted the recent Chinese slowdown from about 10 percentannual growth to about7.5 percent. In fact, the most basic model of economicgrowth, the Solow Model, predicts that a country’s growth slows as it getsricher. Yes, the case for a Chinese slowdown is pretty incontrovertible at thispoint.
According to many pundits, this means that, like the SovietUnion and Japan before it, China doesn’t threaten to supplant the U.S. as theworld’s biggest economy. For example, here is NeilIrwin of the New York Times:
拉里萨默斯和兰特普里切特曾撰写过一篇论文，预测中国经济增长将放缓。2013年，巴里埃森格林、朴东炫和康镐炫也撰写过相同的论文，并准确预测近期中国经济的年增长率将从10%放缓至7.5%。事实上，经济增长最基本的模型——索洛模型也做过以下预测：随着一国变得富有，它的经济增长将放缓。从这点来看，中国经济放缓是毫无争议的。
根据许多专家的意思：就像曾经的苏联和日本那样，中国根本威胁不到美国，也无法取代美国成为世界上最大的经济体。举个例子，以下是《纽约时报》专栏作家奈尔欧文的文章：
[P]ut aside thechallenges China faces this quarter, or next year, and there is one view thatis overwhelming: China is a long-term economic juggernaut that will standastride the global economy in another generation’s time…
[F]or years now,major magazines and editorials and books have told me about the ChineseCentury, in which we are apparently now living. Leading foreign policy journalshave devoted copious ink to exploring what China’s rise will mean for globaleconomics and politics, often taking as a given that China will be the dominantpower of the coming century…
Analysts predictedthat the Soviet economy would soon surpass the American economy in the 1960s,that Japan’s would do the same in the 1980s and that the United States hadachieved a new era of perpetual speedy growth in the late 1990s. None of thesehave come to pass.
刨除中国在本季度或明年面临的挑战，这里有一个压倒性的观点：中国长期是一个经济大国，再过一代人的时间，它就会成为全球经济的领军者。
多年来，重要杂志、社论文章和书籍都告诉过我“中国世纪”，我们现在明显就生活在这个世纪里。主要的外国政策杂志已经投入了大量墨水来探讨中国崛起对全球经济和政治意味着什么，它们通常会得出一个结论：中国必将成为下个世纪的主导力量。
分析师曾预测过：苏联经济会在20世纪60年代超越美国经济、日本经济会在20世纪80年代超越美国、以及美国会在20世纪90年代末迎来持续快速增长的新时代。但是。以上这些都没有发生。
China will definitely slow down, but the analogy to theSoviet Union and Japan is a bad one, for one incredibly simple reason: size.China is so enormously huge that it would take a calamity far worse than whathappened to Japan, or even the USSR, to stop it from becoming the world’slargest economy.
China’s population in 2013 was 1.357 billion while the U.S.’s was 316 million. That’s a ratio of 4.29 to 1.
Just to help the reader understand this size disparity,imagine that the U.S. was an average American man, weighing 191 pounds. Ifpopulation were weight, then China would weigh the same as an 819-pound adultmale grizzly bear.
To put it another way, imagine that the U. S. were theJPMorgan Chase headquarters in New York, which is 707 feet (215 meters) tall.If population were height, then China would be 316 feet taller than the BurjKhalifa, which at 2,717 feet is the world’s tallest building.
Of course, population and gross domestic product are’n’tweight or height, so let’s put it in slightly more realistic terms. Here is afact: If every Chinese person of working age had a job for 40 hours a week, 50weeks a year, those workers would only need to make $9.15 an hour for theChinese economy to be larger than that of the U.S.
中国经济一定会放缓，但是拿它和苏联日本进行比较是错误的，理由很简单：大小。中国非常庞大，以至于为了阻止它成为世界上最大的经济体，可能会带来一场比日本苏联还糟糕的灾难。
2013年，中国的总人口是13.57亿，而美国的总人口是3.16亿。二者的比例是4.29:1。
为了帮助读者理解大小的差距。假设人口等价于体重，如果美国是一个重191磅的普通男人，那么中国就像是一头重819磅的成年雄性灰熊。
再假设人口等价于楼高。如果美国是707英尺（215米）的纽约摩根大通公司总部，中国就比哈利法塔还要高316英尺。（哈利法塔有2717英尺，是世界最高的建筑。）
当然，人口和GDP并不是体重或楼高，所以我们把它放在更现实的角度里。这里有一个事实：如果每个中国人的工作年龄是一周40小时、一年50周，那么他们只需每个小时赚9.15美元就能让中国经济规模超过美国。
How about those comparisons to the USSR? If China’sper-capita GDP were the same level as that of Russia today, China’s economywould be 20 percent larger than that of the U.S.
In other words, even a Soviet-style collapse would presentno obstacle to China becoming the world’s dominant economy. The one simplereason is that China is mind-bogglingly huge.
For China not to become the world’s largest economy, itwould not take just a slowdown — it would take a collapse on a bigger scalethan anything we’ve seen in recent world history, short of Zimbabwe or NorthKorea. That isn’t impossible, but it seems unlikely.
In fact, it’s arguably true that China is already the world’slargest economy. It’s thebiggest in purchasing-power parity terms, which is arguably a bettermeasure of how much stuff China as a whole can buy. It’s the world’s largest traderand largest manufacturer.
So those who argue that China’s economic dominance isn’tinevitable are either A) quibbling about a technicality, or B) forgetting theoverriding yet simple fact of China’s enormous size.
中国和苏联对比又会怎么样呢？如果中国现在的人均GDP和苏联相同，那么中国的经济规模比美国还要大20%。
也就是说，就算苏联模式崩溃了，它现在也无法阻止中国成为世界主导经济。原因很简单：中国是令人难以置信的庞大。
如果中国没有成为世界上最大的经济体，它就不会崩溃。但是，如果中国的经济规模比世界近代史上任何一个国家都大时，它就一定会崩溃。当然，这些国家要排除津巴布韦和朝鲜。这是可能的，但又似乎不太可能。
实际上，按最大购买力平价计算，可以说中国已经是世界上最大的经济体了。最大购买力平价可以更好地衡量整个中国到底能购买多少商品。中国是世界上最大的贸易商和生产商。
所以，那些认为中国经济不会主导世界的人，要么是在细节上吹毛求疵，要么是忘记了中国规模庞大这个重要而简单的事实。

以下是美国网友的评论：
myopinion • 40 minutes ago
population is not the only factor why China is very veryvery very very big. India has 1.2 billion people not far behind of China’s 1.3billion, I have never heard people are talking India the same way they do asChina. Admit it, Chinese people are smart, with great tradition, good workingethics and hard working people to support the very very very very very very bigjob.
人口并非中国非常非常非常非常大的唯一原因。印度也有12亿人，比中国的13少不了多少，但我从来没有听人说过印度和中国一样强。承认吧，中国人很聪明也很勤劳，他们有伟大的传统和良好的职业道德，他们用这些支持着中国这个大工程。

JohnB Taggart • an hour ago
Thats just great, more evidence of the end of times for theUSA
太棒了，更多证据显示美国时代要终结了。

PhilOstrand • an hour ago
But China will have to face increasingly hostile internalpeoples, who do not want to be part of CHina. Already there is strongresentment of the coastal high rise cities.
但是，中国不得不面对内部日益敌对的问题，谁都不想成为中国的一部分。沿海城市的高层已经强烈不满了。

JOHNYN • 2 hours ago
China negatives
not enough power plants coal or nuclear or otherwise
To much smog
Need to import food, commodities, oil , coal , Iron
Need to support a 4 million man army
Positives – graduates more enjineers in one year thanAmerica has total .
chaep labour . huge land mass for planting / farms …
不利于中国的方面：
没有足够的煤炭发电站或核电站
烟雾太多
需要进口粮食、商品、油、煤和铁
需要支撑一个400万人的军队
每年，积极的工程师毕业生比美国多
劳动力廉价
幅员辽阔
大规模进行种植或养殖

JimmyMunar • 2 hours ago
India and Asean has more than 1.8 billion people far largerthan communist china…! If these countries plus Japan and Australia willcooperate economically and militarily it will be the most powerful entity inany part of Asia…!!!!!
印度和东盟的人口已经有18亿多了，远远超过了中国TG的人口！如果这些国家与日本澳大利亚在经济和军事上进行合作，它们将会是整个亚洲最强大的存在。

Kingswood • 4 hours ago
China is actually two different countries when you considertheir population: one is fairly well educated and “white collar”(25%), the other is illiterate and “peasant class” (75%). While 25%make a good living in the cities, the remaining are basically nothing more thana social burden. As democracy spreads, along with freedom of information …andit will, the communists can’t keep a lid on it forever… that nation willimplode into civil war. Not that that will be good for the US necessarily, butit cannot be avoided.
考虑到人口时，中国实际上是两个不同的国家：一个受过良好教育，是“白领”（25%）；另一个属于文盲，是“农民阶级”（75）。白领在城市里过着好日子，而农民阶级更像是社会的负担。随着民主和信息自由的蔓延，可就HOLD不住了，中国会发生内爆，然后演变成内战。它不一定有利于美国，但不可避免。

wraiththirteen • 4 hours ago
I wouldnt trust “official” chinese numbers.
我不相信中国官方的数据。

heChubby Cheeked Kid • 5 hours ago
Communist *** + Capitalist Economy = Winning!
TG政府+资本主义经济=胜利！

Chappy • 5 hours ago
Very very stupid article
这篇文章非常非常愚蠢。

ArielM • 5 hours ago
I thought they were very very very small ;-0
我认为中国非常非常非常非常小。

nvtncs • 5 hours ago
Actually i’d like to see the one-child policy lifted, theChinese population rise to 2.5 billion and China go from very very very verybig to ginormous.
Then, either a Chinese instigated expansionist war erupts or Chinese massstarvation occurs.
其实我想看到解禁独生子女政策，这样中国人口就会上升到25亿，中国也会从非常非常非常非常大变为庞大。
到那时，中国就会煽动扩张战争或发生大饥荒。

FUCHINA • 6 hours ago
china society creating corruptpeople,greed,liar,deceiving,living dirty liked cockroach,china will never goup,civil war will happens soon,all the corruption will destroy china veryfast,these chinese troll in here are stupid they dont known corruption in chinaare the creation of china sick society
中国社会创造了蟑螂一样的***分子、贪婪、骗子、自欺欺人和生活污水。中国不会再发展了，马上会发生内战，***很快会摧毁这个国家。中国流氓很愚蠢，他们不知道***是中国病态社会的杰作。

MPA2000 • 6 hours ago
China has done what the USSR had dreamed of doing, becomingan economic powerhouse bound to replace the US. Even Vietnam, a communistcountry has a annual growth of around 10%.
中国已经实现了苏联的梦想，成为势必会取代美国的经济大国。甚至越南这个社会主义国家的年增长率有10%。

nvtncs • 6 hours ago
Too big to fail?
太大，所以倒闭了吗？

GLI0213 • 7 hours ago
That’s true China is very big. But why are they stillclaiming other country’s territory illegaly? Isn’t that greed? Stop China’***pansionism, it undermines world peace.
中国是真的很大。那么他们为什么还要非法声称拥有其他国家的领土呢？这不是贪婪吗？阻止中国扩张，它破坏了世界和平。

FUCHINA • 7 hours ago
the day japan and usa get their factory out of china ,thatwill be the collapse of china economy
日本和美国将工厂撤离中国之日，就是中国经济崩溃之时。

cantsleepclownwilleatme • 8 hours ago
however, according to standard beliefs, somethings aboutChina are usually very very small.
然而，根据信仰标准，中国在某些方面非常非常小。