【美国网友】香港正沦落为“二级”中国城市

Hong Kong is losing its edge as a globalfinancial and commercial center, and the territory's economic clout will beovershadowed by China'smajor cities by 2022. That's the argument in an August 27 report releasedby Trigger Trend, an independent Chinese research firm based in the southernmetropolis of Guangzhou.The report emerged just days before Beijing declared it would not countenance open nominations in theplanned 2017 popular election for Hong Kong'schief executive, and its findings are likely to stoke further anxiety about theformer British colony's economic and political future.

香港作为金融和商业中心的优势正在慢慢消失，并且在2022年之前，这个地区的经济影响力就会被中国其他主要城市超越。 这是Trigger Trend于8月27号发布的报告中的观点。TriggerTrend是位于南方大都市—广州的一所独立的中国研究机构。在该报告发布后没几天，北京就宣布不再支持2017年的香港特首普选开放提名。报告结论可能会使人们对这个前英国殖民地的经济和政治前途更加忧虑。

In the wake of Beijing's decision, HongKong's democracy advocates now face a hard choice between carrying out what some havecalled a "nuclear option" to occupy the city's Central financial district en masse, which coulddisrupt businesses, or swallowing what they call a "fake election" for the Chief Executive, the head ofHong Kong's government. Either way, Beijingsays it does not plan to yield to acts of civil disobedience in thespecial administrative region, even if protests make investors or businessowners jittery.

随着北京做出决定，香港的民主人士正面临一个两难的选择：是采取人们所说的“核手段”去占领中环—这可能会扰乱商业，还是接受他们口中的香港特首“假选举”？无论选择哪个，北京方面都宣称不会对香港特别行政区内的抵抗运动妥协，即使抗议活动会使投资者和业主们感到不安。

In taking a hard-line stance againstgranting true democracy to Hong Kong, the Chinese government has madeclear to the rest of China— as well as Taiwan, which Beijing considers a rogueprovince — that threats of civil disobedience will not lead to politicalconcessions. The central government probably also believes that it can now casta menacing shadow over Hong Kong with itsincreasing economic weight. The report by Trigger Trend does not appear to becommissioned by the Chinese government, but the report's conclusions have beenwidely publicized in mainland media and align nicely with the centralgovernment's unspoken message to Hong Kongers: The special administrativeregion is no longer very special.

通过在反对给予香港真正的民主上采取强硬立场，中国政府已明确地向包括台湾（北京方面认为的不听话的省份）在内的中国其他地区表明她不会对任何形式的温和抵抗威胁妥协。随着中国经济实力的增强，中央政府可能认为她能够给香港投下一层威胁的阴影。Trigger Trend的这份报告似乎不是受中国政府的委托，但该报告的结论已经在大陆被媒体广泛宣传，并且与中央政府对香港人的潜台词非常吻合：这个特别行政区已经不再特别。

To bolster its claim, the report statesthat Hong Kong's annual GDP growth rate has hovered around two percent inrecent years, while major regional centers in China have been growing at overseven percent per year. Hong Kong's 2013 GDP, at an estimated $261 billion,already pales in comparison to Shanghai's, at $354 billion, and Beijing's,at $317 billion. The report also states that at the time of its handover fromthe British in 1997, Hong Kong's GDP was 15.6 percent of China's national total; by 2013,the city's share had shrunk to 2.9 percent.

为支持其声明，该报告指出，近几年香港的GDP年增长率一直徘徊在2%左右，而中国主要区域中心的增长率则每年都在7%以上。2013年香港的GDP大约是2610亿美元，跟上海的3540亿美元、北京的3170亿美元相比已经相形见绌。该报告还指出，1997年香港从英国手中回归中国时，其GDP占中国总GDP的15.6%。但到2013年，香港的份额已经缩水到了2.9%。

According to Trigger Trend, if currentgrowth rates continue, the southern cities of Guangzhouand Shenzhen as well as the northern municipalityof Tianjian will likely overtake Hong Kong in terms of GDP by 2017.

根据《TriggerTrend》的报告，如果按目前的速度增长下去，到2017年，南部城市广州、深圳和北部直辖市天津将在GDP上超过香港。

Inland metropolises such as Chongqing, Chengdu, and Wuhan will catch up by2022. "In the ranking of Chinese cities by economics, Hong Kong may become a mere second tier city" by 2022, the reportwarned.

内陆城市如重庆、成都和武汉则会在2022年前赶上香港。该报告警告说：到2022年，中国城市的经济实力排名上，香港可能会沦为二线城市。

As the mainland's foremost commercial city,Shanghai is often seen as Hong Kong's direct competitor. Shanghaiannounced the establishment of a free trade zone (FTZ) inSept. 2013, setting up tariff-free ports and offering tax and policy breaks toforeign investors. While the Shanghai FTZ has so far offered more hype than substance, Hong Kong's policymakers have warned that its businesses must be prepared forcompetition. Some in Hong Kong, particularly members of its business community,have also bought into the logic that the fight for democracy harmsthe territory's economic competitiveness, or at least presents a serious distraction from the issues that concern Hong Kongresidents' livelihoods, like employment and social welfare.

作为中国大陆最重要的商业城市，上海一直被视为香港最直接的竞争对手。2013年9月，上海宣布成立自由贸易区，建立免关税港口，并向外国投资商提供税收和政策优惠。虽然到目前为止上海自由贸易区的宣传大于实质，香港的决策者们仍警告他们的企业必须做好竞争的准备。一些香港人，特别是商界成员已经形成了这样的逻辑：争取民主会伤害该香港的经济竞争力，或至少会转移人们对香港的民生问题，如就业和社会福利的注意力。

But Hong Kong'sposition as a global financial center rests on more than just the size of itsGDP. The city boasts superb infrastructure, a well-established legal system,and a cosmopolitan culture that no mainland city, including Beijingor Shanghai,has yet been able to replicate. In 2012, the Economist Intelligence Unit, aresearch outfit, ranked Hong Kong the fourth-most competitive city in theworld, far ahead of Beijing (ranked 39th) and Shanghai (ranked 43rd).Hong Kong is also a muchwealthier city in terms of per-capita income than itsmainland peers. What's more, it remains a golden goose for China in terms of its function as agateway to international investment and human capital. Investors, expatriates,and new immigrants flock to Hong Kong becausethe city is perceived to be more livable, with safer food, cleaner air, freermedia, and a fairer judiciary than Chinese metropolises.

但是香港作为全球金融中心的地位不仅仅取决于她GDP规模的大小。香港拥有一流的基础设施，完善的法律体系，和世界性的文化，而这些优势都是包括北京上海在内的大陆城市无法复制的。2012年，经济学人智库这家研究机构将香港排在了全球最具竞争力的城市榜的第四位，遥遥领先于北京(第39位)和上海(第43位)。在人均收入水平上，香港也比她的大陆同行更富裕。更重要的是，基于她作为国际投资和人力资本通道的重要作用，香港对中国来说仍然是一只下金蛋的鹅。投资者，外籍人员和新移民不断涌入香港是因为人们认为这个城市更宜居，她有比内地大都市更安全的食品，更清新的空气，更自由的媒体以及更公正的司法。

The hard data on Hong Kong's decline in economic clout relative to the mainland may beundisputable, but it remains a first class global city on the strength of itssoft power. Hong Kong's ability to maintain its advantages is largely based onits relative political autonomy from Chinaand the strength of its civic institutions — the very things that recentrumblings from Beijingimperil. Should it lose its uniqueness, Hong Kong's future as a second tiercity in Chinais all but assured.

相对于大陆，香港经济影响力的硬性指标下降是毋庸置疑的，但在软实力上她仍然是一座全球一流城市。香港能否保持其优势很大程度上取决于来自中国的政治上的相对自主性以及公民组织的力量—它们正被近期来自北京的传言所伤。如果失去了她的独特性，香港沦为中国二级城市的未来几乎是必然的。







CaptainCommonsense• 2 days ago
Second-tier city in a second-tier regime.

二等政权下的二级城市

Trollman Baggins CaptainCommonsense• 2 days ago
Nm.

恩~~

myopinion CaptainCommonsense• a day ago
second tier city because of many trouble*** second tier people in Hong Kong.

香港沦为二线城市因为香港很多爱惹麻烦的二等人

Frankmyopinion • a day ago
that makes no sense

毫无意义

FrankPhillipWoon • a day ago
3,500 years of history, and yet the Chinesestill can't flush toilet paper down the toilet. They have to leave"dirty" toilet tissue paper in a small bin beside the toilet. Howrevolting.

3500年的历史了，中国还是没办法把厕纸冲下厕所，而是把厕纸留在厕所边上的小本里，多么令人作呕。

JoeBlow Frank• a day ago
the fallacy is, China has 5,000 years of history,not 3,500. Let's be frank, this frank is nothing but bunch of hot air, I sawhim wiping his butt with his bare fingers, he eats his own boogers after hepicked his nose. how disgusting

荒谬的是，中国历史是5000年，而不是3500年。坦白说，我看见他用裸露的手指擦屁股，而且擦了鼻子后吃鼻屎。好恶心。

Trollman Baggins • 2 days ago
British scum sold out the people of Hong Kongand the ideals of freedom by giving this back to the ethnophobic, racist,military state of China.It set the whole world backwards. The British are so self-hating and passiveaggressive since they lost their empire. Now they are just destroying themselveson purpose.

英国人渣出卖了香港人民和自由的理想，把他们送回了排外的、种族主义的、军事主义的中国，拖了整个世界的后腿。英国人自从失去了自己的帝国后就变得如此自我憎恨、消极。现在他们是在故意自我毁灭。

thefox • a day ago
China'ssupposed GDP growth of 7.5% a year have been its pipe dream for the last 3years. All you got left are lies about being a number one economy which willnever happen. People around the world have boycotted CHINESE products.
China'seconomy is now on a steep dive.

过去三年，中国每年7.5%的GDP增长不过是白日梦。得到的不过是个永远不会实现的谎言。世界各地的人们都抵制中国产品。
中国经济目前正在急剧下降。

PhillipWoon thefox • a day ago
Keep thinking that, you white trash. We'llsurpass you and reclaim the top of the world that was lost in 1821, when China was thenumber 1 economy in the world. You whites' days in the sun is over....

你们继续这样想吧，你们这些白色垃圾。我们会超越你们，重回世界之巅，中国在1821年的时候就已经是世界经济第一了。你们白人如日中天的日子要结束了~~

FrankPhillipWoon • a day ago
1.3 billion people and not a single NobelPrize in Medicine, Science, Economics or anything important. How utterlypathetic. The chinese have no imagination, no creativity, no critical thinkingskills, no originality. They are PATHETIC

13亿人,没有一个医学、科学、经济学或任何重要奖项的诺贝尔获奖者，真是彻头彻尾的悲哀，中国人没有想象力,没有创造力,没有批判性思维,没有创意。真可怜。

CaptainCommonsenseFrank• a day ago
They're brilliant at stealing otherpeoples' discoveries though!

他们对于盗取其他人的创意非常在行！

JoeBlow thefox • a day ago
every nations on earth would rather haveeconomy like China's.Jealous much???? you should be.
The Chinese gov't has been planning to makeHK not to be a financial capital rather it will become a largest & modernport for trading, While Shanghai will be replacing HongKong to become the FinancialCapital in the near future.
Unless mainlanders can change theirun-cultured way of life, no mainland Chinese city can surpass Hong Kong. Just ask anyone who has lived in mainland China, about its general lack ofcivility, chaotic traffics, noise pollution, corruptions... i can go on....

地球上每个国家都希望像中国的经济状况。嫉妒吗？应该是。
中国政府打算取消香港经济首都的地位，让它成为最大的现代贸易港口。而上海会在不久的将来取代香港成为经济首都。。
除非中国大陆人改变他们的生活方式，否则没有大陆城市可以超越香港。尽管随便问问曾经在中国大陆住过的人，中国大陆人普遍没有礼貌、混乱的交通、噪音污染。。